North Korea — Provocation Likely During Summits

By Kim So Yeol [2009-06-01 19:10 ] www.dailynk.com
Recently, while North Korea has been resisting the South Korean government’s full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and declaring the Korean War armistice agreement null and void, it has also been emphasizing a military response, raising concerns about the possibility of an additional provocation by the North in the near future.

In particular, after the capturing of an image of a new long-range missile being carried on a freight train to a launch pad by the U.S. and South Korean intelligence authorities, the test launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) seems to be a likely scenario for the near future.

A person related to South Korean intelligence authorities explained on the 30th, “The image of a long-range missile being ferried from an arms research center in Saneum-dong near Pyongyang on a three-car freight train has been captured. The missile has been confirmed as an ICBM.”

Accordingly, it has been proposed that North Korea is attempting to show off the last stage of its weapons of mass destruction capabilities, after having completed one long-range rocket launch (on April 5th) and a second nuclear test (on May 25th). The North has not yet heeded the threats issued against it, such as additional sanctions, following the second nuclear test.

The Taepodong-2, which North Korea is in the midst of developing, is supposed to have a range exceeding 6,700 kilometers, but this has yet to be demonstrated. If North Korea succeeded in test-launching a Taepodong-2 to its full capacity, it would demonstrate its capacity to put both the Northeast Asian region and the U.S. mainland in range.

Until now, the longest distance covered by any North Korean missile is the approximately 3,200 kilometers, reached by the “Eunha-2,” which Pyongyang claimed was the launch of a satellite. It was launched at the Moosudan-ri launch facility in early April, whereupon it travelled over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean.

However, some experts suggest that North Korea may now have the ability to upgrade its ICBM capability because it has tested the technology to divide a three-stage missile in flight.

Now, since the North seems to be moving to attempt additional provocations, interest has been mounting regarding the possible timing of any act.

Just as two North Korean patrol ships launched a surprise attack on a South Korean navy patrol boat in the 2nd West Sea Battle by advancing south of the NLL on June 29th, a day before the 2002 World Cup Games, it has been observed that the country might be expected to carry out a provocation at a time during which all eyes and ears in the world would be focused on Korea.

Some experts on North Korea, reflecting on North Korean actions which have gone beyond political rhetoric lately, have picked the period of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Special Summit Meeting on Jeju Island as a potential time for provocation.

The South Korean army and intelligence authorities have also intensified their lookout, anticipating the June 1st and 2nd meeting of ten heads of states as a potentially dangerous time.

A person related to the administration revealed, “Just like during the 2002 World Cup, when the North incited the second West Sea Battle, there is now a sufficient possibility [of a provocation]. Just as the South Korean government is preparing for such an event, the North will put up resistance, at least initially.”

However, Jung Young Tae, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, forecasted regarding North Korea’s military threats at the Northern Limit Line (NLL), “It is highly possible that the North could be aiming to raise military tensions, but since our military has resolutely mounted a posture of preparedness, an actual attack at this place is not likely.”

Some others have predicted that a provocation might take place around the time of the U.S.-South Korea Summit Talks, which are expected to be held on the 16th of this month.
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